Pakistani intelligence has had a close relationship with bin Laden since the early 1980s, when he acted as a courier, transferring funds from Saudi intelligence and its establishment to the Pakistani Jamaat-e-Islami to support the anti-Soviet jihad.
It is no surprise that bin Laden chose to relocate to eastern Afghanistan, an area within Pakistan's sphere of influence, in 1996 – after he was expelled from Sudan under US pressure.Of course, the relationship has never been smooth – Pakistan's opportunism alienated al-Qaeda just as much as such behaviour alienated the United States – but also made it just as indispensable.
He was nobody but due to the afghan war was given good publicity only for the afghan war. After 1988 they formed a group to go global and this was given publicity in 1993 in NY after that they continued and after 1995 was given bigger publicity to create a global leader for ummah.
Most of this was targeted on Indian Muslims who are being changed for global ummah.Social engineering using the media hype of Osama bin in a global fight against the mightly US.IMs and other muslim nations changed their view and started supporting him. This also changed Pak and they started aggressive. This deep social engineering has never been done globally.India changed with right-center party being elected and forming govt.
1988-1993 - First period of OBL formation
1994-1997 - Global plans and ambitions - media hype
1998-2001 - Hyper media on OBL and center of the global Islam
2002-2011 - WOT and OBL as the target and OBL creating a anti american movement
A big question is why didn't US feel they needn't get OBL in 2001?
They let him escape to TSP an gave ~$2B subsidy/dole to keep him. TSP can pretend to corral him. Now suddenly in 2011 they decide that they have to get him dead than alive.
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OBL is not just a person but they created a movement around him giving him international publicity to rouse the Islamic radicals world wide including Indian muslims. This hardcore radicalization was used as an anti American movement after 911 to keep the WOT running. Most of the muslims inclined for radical thought fell for it and joined it everywhere.
India was a experiment to see how Indian Hindus and govt react to it. Idea is to create counter radical/militant force to create a clash and eventual war in the region. They tried Mumbai attack but no luck.Hence now they have wind down the movement by removing OBL
This (OBL movement) is a US created monster and they had to close it in the eyes of the Muslim world to show dominance. The fact that OBL was US's blue-eyed boy once upon a time, remember that Zbig Brizensky in goggles cheering on OBL & his jihadis on why they are doing God's work in confronting the Soviets and why US will not let them down? Can't believe the same OBL is now enemy and his killing is cheered like drunk zombies.
It was around 2005-2007 timeline there were intel reports and discussions in India's security apparatus of tackling al-quaida. I guess the sequence may be:
(1) OBL is cornered from all sides
(2) The tacit agreement between west and TSP is they will continue to ignore India specifics
(3) Hence OBL may be incharge of India ops instead of sitting idle
(4) JeM and LeT housed OBL as planned by TSPA and ISI
Infact if we think deep, this could be one of the adjustments that were executed seriously and at a faster pace to bring truce between various factions of the jihadi machine post Lal masjid. 26/11 is not completely investigated or revealed.
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Abbottobad raid
Just as hard it is to believe that Pakistan did not know Osama Bin Laden (OBL) was living in Abbottabad,
it is hard to believe Pakistan did not know of these raids.After CIA spotted and confirmed OBL, Pakistan was probably given two options:
1) handover OBL voluntarily.
2) allow USA to perform a stage managed raid on the compound to take out OBL.
After a lot of deliberation and scenario analysis, the option 1 must have been chosen. This option saved Pakistan of the humility of handing over OBL to USA and inviting wrath of mullahs and sundry terrorist groups operating in Pakistan, and it also gave some lift to sagging stature of President Obama who approval rating has been on constant decline.
40 minutes is a very little time to do a precise operation like this particularly if the commandos were not familiar with the inside layout of the buildings and no outside support from Pakistan was given.
US has a history of bungling up in raids like this: Iran (1979) and Somalia (1992) are the two good examples. So, what make this one be so clinically precise? Answer: it was Pakistan supported.
It is hard to believe that military apparatus of Pakistan failed to spot entry of US helicopters into Pakistani Airspace. In general, any piece of metal in air hardly goes unaccounted. The radar systems are pretty
precise these days. So, how could 4 helicopters went unnoticed. No, they did not. They were just overlooked.
I do not want to read too much into this incident. I guess OBL had become liability for both Pakistan and US and they decided to play this out for public consumption. As a source of terror, probably OBL had not remained a threat anyway. A closure was needed on on an issue that had drawn much longer than its useful life for both Pakistan and USA.
What I find amusing is that no attempt to capture OBL alive was made. It is quite possible that he had been already interrogated by Pakistani and US officials so there was no information left to be extracted. The alacrity with which the dead OBL was thrown into sea and no pictures are being released leaves a lot of question to be answered.
My feeling is that USA will start leaving Afghanistan in coming months and further consolidate its hold on Pakistan - the last Anglo-Saxon outpost.
From a geo-political point of view, this appears a neutral event. No structural change in the situation. No upside or downside for India.